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KMID : 0358119920180020075
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Journal of the Korean Public Health Association
1992 Volume.18 No. 2 p.75 ~ p.83
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Study on the Population Projection by Changing Total Fertility Level in Korea
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Abstract
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This study analyzes the population transition of Korea from 1990 to 2020 by, using a computer program for population projection (ESCAP/POP) under the assumption that the total fertility rate change from 1.6 to 1.0 in 2020.
1. Under the assumption that total fertility rate remains unchanged in 2020(T k: 1.6), the numbers of population in 2020 were 51,079 thousand, and increased by 8.210 thousand as compared with 1990. Decreasing 0. 1 point of total fertility rate resulted a decline of about 500 thousand population in 2020.
2. In the projection 1990-2020 crude birth rate (per 1.000: CBR) was increased from 5.6 to 9.9 in 2020 in the assumption of unchanging fertility level during 1990-2020. On the other hand an assumed decline of the TFR from 1.6 in 1990 to 1.0 in 2020 there were 2.4 times decrease of the CBR in 2020. The crude death rate (per 1.000:CDR) by level of total fertility in 2020(TFR 1.6. 1.3 and 1.0) was 8.7. 9.0 and 9.2 respectively.
3. If the total fertility rate was unchanged during 1990-2020, the population growth rates were 1.0 in 1990 and 0.1 in 2020. Zero percent population growth occurs by 2019 (decline of the TFR to a level of 1.4 in 2020) and occurs by 2013 (decline the TFR to a level of 1.0 in 2020):
4. Under the assumption of unchanging in TFR level during 1990-2020, the proportion of under 15 years decreased from 25.8 percent in 1990 to 15.7- percent in 2020. And increased from 1. 0 percent in 1990 to 13.0 percent in 2020 in over 65 age group.
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KEYWORD
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